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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 6 May 2019, at 12:02 a.m.

In Response To: Hit or not with this 51? (John O'Hagan)

I made the correct play of 8/3 5/4 OTB but 8/7* 6/1 is a very close 2nd. Hitting gives you almost enough extra net g's and bg's to compensate for the extra losses. The safe play gives you 8% more wins while hitting gives you 16% more g's and 1+% more bg's. Notice that 31 and 41 are weak hitting numbers as they force White to break an inner board point. So hitting would be correct at any match score where g's are slightly more valuable to you than your opponent.

Another safe play is 8/3 6/5. That's slightly inferior to 8/3 5/4 since it forces you to break your 6-point with 51 and leaves 6 blotting numbers next time (65,63,61) vs. 64 and 61 after the correct play.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 77
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--cDBCCaC----------bbbc-b-:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout18/3 5/4eq: +0.794
Player:
Opponent:		84.23% (G:17.10% B:0.54%)
15.77% (G:0.55% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.791...+0.797) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout18/7* 6/1eq: +0.786 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		76.27% (G:37.79% B:1.86%)
23.73% (G:4.06% B:0.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.782...+0.790) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout28/3 6/5eq: +0.775 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		83.60% (G:16.93% B:0.48%)
16.40% (G:0.64% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.769...+0.781) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 25 seconds
4.Rollout28/3 8/7* eq: +0.717 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:		74.17% (G:37.62% B:1.97%)
25.83% (G:4.07% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.711...+0.724) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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