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Prime vs prime cube action - ROLLOUT and Three VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 27 July 2019, at 3:23 a.m.

In Response To: Prime vs prime cube action - RO & VAR (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 130
13 point match
pip: 102
score: 11

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaaDCCD-----a--a--bbbbb-A:0:0:-1:D:11:3:0:13:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67,73% (G:10,74% B:0,21%) 68,63% (G:11,38% B:0,23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32,27% (G:9,52% B:0,82%) 31,37% (G:10,33% B:0,80%)
Cubeless Equities +0,321 +0,875
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,766 (-0,109)±0,007 (+0,759..+0,773)
Double/Take:+0,875±0,009 (+0,867..+0,884)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,125)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 9 minutes 38 seconds


Karol's rollout of his original position is shown above. Clear DOUBLE / TAKE.

There are three variants below. In all cases, White has played an extra 2 pips.

Variants 1 and 2 are immediately below, side by side (if you window is wide). White's extra 2 pips promotes her cube value to DOUBLE / PASS.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 128
13 point match
pip: 102
score: 11

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--abDCCD-----a--a--bbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:11:3:0:13:10

Variant 1 (White's 24pt checker is advanced to her 22pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.93% (G:9.98% B:0.18%) 73.37% (G:10.78% B:0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.07% (G:7.90% B:0.51%) 26.63% (G:8.37% B:0.67%)
Cubeless Equities +0.421 +1.066
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.836 (-0.164)±0.005 (+0.832..+0.841)
Double/Take:+1.066 (+0.066)±0.006 (+1.060..+1.071)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99758728
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 53 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 128
13 point match
pip: 102
score: 11

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaaDCCD-----a----abbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:11:3:0:13:10

Variant 2 (White's 9pt checker is advanced to her 7pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.40% (G:11.45% B:0.23%) 71.12% (G:12.30% B:0.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.60% (G:8.67% B:0.85%) 28.88% (G:9.21% B:0.83%)
Cubeless Equities +0.374 +1.011
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.800 (-0.200)±0.004 (+0.796..+0.804)
Double/Take:+1.011 (+0.011)±0.006 (+1.005..+1.017)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99758728
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 35 minutes 51 seconds

Below in Variant 3, White's 2 extra pips hurt her (obviously). In this case, her cube value is demoted all the way to NO DOUBLE.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 128
13 point match
pip: 102
score: 11

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaaDCCD-----a--a--bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:00:11:3:0:13:10

Variant 3 (White's 2pt is advanced to her 1pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.29% (G:8.25% B:0.11%) 57.71% (G:7.84% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.71% (G:11.88% B:1.21%) 42.29% (G:12.24% B:1.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.055 +0.301
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.381±0.005 (+0.376..+0.386)
Double/Take:+0.301 (-0.080)±0.005 (+0.296..+0.306)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.619)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.3%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99758728
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 33 minutes 30 seconds

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