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Cube actions and Blue to play 53 (many scores)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 21 August 2019, at 7:00 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 101 13 point match pip: 43 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EaDDB----------aaccbb-b--:0:0:1:35:5:3:0:13:10
Hit at –5–10

1.	Rollout1	5/Off 5/2*	eq: +0.443
	Player: Opponent: 72.35% (G:5.57% B:0.02%) 27.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.442...+0.444) - [100.0%] Duration: 34.5 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/Off 3/Off	eq: +0.429 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 71.81% (G:3.88% B:0.02%) 28.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.428...+0.430) - [0.0%] Duration: 26.7 seconds
3.	Rollout1	5/Off 4/1	eq: +0.429 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 70.81% (G:3.20% B:0.02%) 29.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.428...+0.430) - [0.0%] Duration: 20.2 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64307534 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 101 13 point match pip: 43 score: 9 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EaDDB----------aaccbb-b--:1:1:1:53:9:3:0:13:10
Two Off at –4–10

1.	Rollout1	5/Off 3/Off	eq: +0.514
	Player: Opponent: 70.16% (G:4.91% B:0.07%) 29.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.513...+0.515) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/2* 5/Off	eq: +0.510 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 72.13% (G:4.81% B:0.05%) 27.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.508...+0.511) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 16 seconds
3.	Rollout1	5/Off 4/1	eq: +0.499 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 69.86% (G:3.72% B:0.05%) 30.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.498...+0.500) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 66252296 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 101 13 point match pip: 43 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EaDDB----------aaccbb-b--:1:1:1:53:10:3:0:13:10
Hit at –3–10

1.	Rollout1	5/2* 5/Off	eq: +0.470
	Player: Opponent: 72.11% (G:5.07% B:0.06%) 27.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.469...+0.471) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/Off 3/Off	eq: +0.438 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 69.12% (G:7.92% B:0.11%) 30.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.436...+0.439) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 30 seconds
3.	Rollout2	5/Off 4/1	eq: +0.433 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 69.20% (G:7.29% B:0.07%) 30.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.431...+0.436) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 42 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 99758728 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73123539 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

As John showed by his rollout and articulate explanation, Blue should not redouble at the –3–10 score.

According to my 5k rollouts (not shown), Blue should also not redouble at –3–9 or –3–8, though at –3–7 (41k) it's a tiny redouble -- and a take at all those scores. At –3–6 or closer (or for money) or at –4–10 or at –5–10, it's a redouble/pass.

Supposing Blue does NOT redouble and rolls 53. This is an interesting checker play problem.

---------------------------------------------------
.....Score ..Rollout result.....Location

.....–5–10 [H 013 114] <5...Above
.....–4–10 [0 H4 115] <5.... Above
.....–3–10 [H 033 137] <5.. Above

.....–3–9 [H 015 130] <5.... Below
.....–3–8 [H 030 137] <5.... Below
.....–3–7 [0 115 H30] <5.... Below
.....–3–6 [0 H9 115] <5...... Below
.....–3–5 [H 04 118] <5...... Below
.....–3–4 [H 04 I19] <5...... Below

Key: H = Hit (5/off 5/2*), 0 = 0pt (5/off 3/off), 1 = 1pt (5/off 4/1)
Nactation tutorial ....nacbracs explanation
---------------------------------------------------

Examine the first three rollouts summarized above (and depicted by the rollouts at the very top). Why is hitting best at –3–10 and –5–10, but not at (flanked) –4–10?

Examine the six rollouts immediately above (and depicted by the rollouts below). Why is hitting best at -3-9, -3-8, -3-5 and -3-4, but hitting is not best at (flanked) -3-7 and -3-6?

		White is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 101 13 point match pip: 43 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EaDDB----------aaccbb-b--:1:1:1:53:10:5:0:13:10
Hit at –3–9

1.	Rollout1	5/2* 5/Off	eq: +0.474
	Player: Opponent: 72.07% (G:5.08% B:0.09%) 27.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.473...+0.475) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/Off 3/Off	eq: +0.444 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 69.24% (G:7.71% B:0.17%) 30.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.442...+0.446) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 24 seconds
3.	Rollout1	5/Off 4/1	eq: +0.437 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 69.44% (G:5.92% B:0.08%) 30.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.435...+0.439) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 00 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64307534 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 101 13 point match pip: 43 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EaDDB----------aaccbb-b--:1:1:1:53:10:5:0:13:10
Hit at –3–8

1.	Rollout1	5/2* 5/Off	eq: +0.474
	Player: Opponent: 72.07% (G:5.08% B:0.09%) 27.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.473...+0.475) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/Off 3/Off	eq: +0.444 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 69.24% (G:7.71% B:0.17%) 30.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.442...+0.446) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 24 seconds
3.	Rollout1	5/Off 4/1	eq: +0.437 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 69.44% (G:5.92% B:0.08%) 30.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.435...+0.439) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 00 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64307534 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 101 13 point match pip: 43 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EaDDB----------aaccbb-b--:1:1:1:53:10:6:0:13:10
Two Off at –3–7....(Hitting is worst)

1.	Rollout1	5/Off 3/Off	eq: +0.512
	Player: Opponent: 69.77% (G:5.72% B:0.10%) 30.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.511...+0.513) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/Off 4/1	eq: +0.497 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 69.85% (G:3.78% B:0.03%) 30.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.496...+0.498) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 23 seconds
3.	Rollout1	5/2* 5/Off	eq: +0.482 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 72.10% (G:5.14% B:0.04%) 27.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.481...+0.483) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73123539 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 7 pip: 101 13 point match pip: 43 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EaDDB----------aaccbb-b--:1:1:1:53:10:7:0:13:10
Two Off at –3–6

1.	Rollout1	5/Off 3/Off	eq: +0.514
	Player: Opponent: 69.98% (G:5.12% B:0.09%) 30.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.513...+0.515) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/2* 5/Off	eq: +0.505 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 72.13% (G:4.83% B:0.03%) 27.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.503...+0.506) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds
3.	Rollout1	5/Off 4/1	eq: +0.499 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 69.84% (G:3.74% B:0.04%) 30.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.498...+0.499) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73123539 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 8 pip: 101 13 point match pip: 43 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EaDDB----------aaccbb-b--:1:1:1:53:10:8:0:13:10
Hit at –3–5

1.	Rollout1	5/2* 5/Off	eq: +0.521
	Player: Opponent: 72.06% (G:5.60% B:0.03%) 27.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.520...+0.522) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/Off 3/Off	eq: +0.517 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 70.45% (G:4.91% B:0.06%) 29.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.516...+0.518) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
3.	Rollout1	5/Off 4/1	eq: +0.503 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 69.94% (G:3.72% B:0.05%) 30.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.502...+0.504) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64307534 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 9 pip: 101 13 point match pip: 43 score: 10 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EaDDB----------aaccbb-b--:1:1:1:53:10:9:0:13:10
Hit at –3–4

1.	Rollout1	5/2* 5/Off	eq: +0.523
	Player: Opponent: 72.06% (G:5.75% B:0.04%) 27.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.522...+0.525) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 56 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/Off 3/Off	eq: +0.519 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 70.59% (G:4.74% B:0.05%) 29.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.518...+0.520) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
3.	Rollout1	5/Off 4/1	eq: +0.504 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 69.95% (G:3.63% B:0.04%) 30.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.503...+0.505) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64307534 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

By the way, money yields a (5k) result similar to –3–5 and –3–4. Hitting beats 3/0 by .006 (and 4/1 by .021).

At DMP (or at –3–7 if the cube action correctly goes Redouble/Take), Hitting crushes 4/1 by .060 and 3/0 by .069.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action ATS?
  John O'Hagan -- Friday, 9 August 2019, at 6:22 p.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    ah_clem -- Friday, 9 August 2019, at 7:04 p.m.
    • Cube action ATS?
      ah_clem -- Sunday, 11 August 2019, at 1:14 p.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    Michael -- Friday, 9 August 2019, at 10:59 p.m.
    • Cube action ATS?
      Michael -- Sunday, 11 August 2019, at 10:54 a.m.
  • OTB & RO
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 11 August 2019, at 8:16 p.m.
  • Cube actions and Blue to play 53 (many scores)
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 August 2019, at 7:00 a.m.