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Could someone please explain?

Posted By: Schigolch
Date: Thursday, 19 September 2019, at 10:39 a.m.

is Someone

score: 1
pip: 177
7 point match
pip: 114
score: 2

is Schigolch
XGID=-babBBBBBBA-aB----adbb----:1:-1:1:21:2:1:0:7:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller+13/12* 4/2* eq: +0,835
Player:
Opponent:		76,12% (G:39,42% B:3,90%)
23,88% (G:3,30% B:0,24%)
2.XG Roller+13/11 13/12* eq: +0,759 (-0,076)
Player:
Opponent:		72,42% (G:40,53% B:4,54%)
27,58% (G:2,08% B:0,09%)
3.XG Roller+13/12* 10/8eq: +0,748 (-0,087)
Player:
Opponent:		72,18% (G:40,31% B:4,43%)
27,82% (G:2,11% B:0,09%)
4.4-ply13/12* 12/10eq: +0,781 (-0,054)
Player:
Opponent:		73,26% (G:40,66% B:4,18%)
26,74% (G:1,93% B:0,05%)
5.4-ply13/12* 9/7eq: +0,761 (-0,073)
Player:
Opponent:		72,78% (G:40,06% B:4,66%)
27,22% (G:2,46% B:0,08%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Could someone please explain why the best move is best? And, be honest, would you have seen it OTB?

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