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Position of the day 5-25-23 - Rollout + Analysis

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 27 May 2023, at 3:04 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the day 5-25-23 (Stick)

After you've looked at the first three variants, internalized the data and drawn some conclusions I hope in doing so you realize just how important the opp's outfield blot is to him. See variant 4 on how much of a disruption that blot is.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 144
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBCaCBa----bcbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.65% (G:12.88% B:0.63%) 73.86% (G:13.47% B:0.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.35% (G:3.60% B:0.12%) 26.14% (G:3.85% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities +0.571 +1.160
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.868 (-0.105)±0.007 (+0.861..+0.875)
Double/Take:+0.973±0.015 (+0.958..+0.988)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.027)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73407164
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 03 seconds

Variant #1

Here we've made the full six prime for our opponent so that any immediate sequence hit is lethal. Also, he's two pips better in the race.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBCaCB----bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.04% (G:12.15% B:0.56%) 73.34% (G:12.84% B:0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.96% (G:3.82% B:0.15%) 26.66% (G:4.09% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.548 +1.119
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.850 (-0.097)±0.011 (+0.839..+0.861)
Double/Take:+0.946±0.023 (+0.924..+0.969)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.054)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73407164
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 11 seconds

Variant 2

Even advancing the opp's prime making him only down ten pips in the race still leads to a decently efficient cube.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBCaCB-----bbbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.00% (G:10.09% B:0.39%) 73.39% (G:10.42% B:0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.00% (G:4.00% B:0.11%) 26.61% (G:3.99% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.524 +1.071
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.819 (-0.086)±0.014 (+0.805..+0.833)
Double/Take:+0.905±0.020 (+0.885..+0.925)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.095)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73407164
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second

Variant 3

Making the race near even and keeping the full six prime still results in a small cube so in short in this type of position, always double.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBCaCB------bbbbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.52% (G:9.07% B:0.30%) 70.82% (G:9.30% B:0.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.48% (G:4.22% B:0.07%) 29.18% (G:4.54% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.461 +0.932
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.746 (-0.017)±0.008 (+0.737..+0.754)
Double/Take:+0.763±0.013 (+0.750..+0.776)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.237)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73407164
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:98.6%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds

Variant 4

Having that outfield nuisance is critical to this position being takeable.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBC-CBaa---bcbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.36% (G:10.84% B:0.38%) 79.10% (G:9.29% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.64% (G:1.95% B:0.05%) 20.90% (G:1.81% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.659 +1.318
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.953 (-0.047)
Double/Take:+1.171 (+0.171)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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