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BGonline.org Forums
I thought I was making it better
Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Friday, 4 August 2023, at 3:49 p.m.
I assessed this correctly OTB, not quite a double. Let's change the position by moving the blot on the 3 point to the 4 point. That's better, right? Apparently not.
My guess: Blue has time to get his board together, and having two points slotted leads to more points made when the time is right.
JLee
Original Position
White is Player 2
score: 7
pip: 12711 point match pip: 118
score: 3
Blue is Player 1XGID=---AAbE-CB--cC---b-bc-a-b-:0:0:1:00:3:7:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 68.75% (G:1.70% B:0.05%) 68.87% (G:1.66% B:0.04%) Opponent Winning Chances: 31.25% (G:1.10% B:0.01%) 31.13% (G:1.07% B:0.01%) Cubeless Equities +0.379 +0.718 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.618 Double/Take: +0.599 (-0.020) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.382) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.7% eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Modified Position
White is Player 2
score: 7
pip: 12711 point match pip: 119
score: 3
Blue is Player 1XGID=----BbE-CB--cC---b-bc-a-b-:0:0:1:00:3:7:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 67.70% (G:1.60% B:0.04%) 67.89% (G:1.55% B:0.03%) Opponent Winning Chances: 32.30% (G:1.03% B:0.01%) 32.11% (G:0.97% B:0.01%) Cubeless Equities +0.358 +0.673 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.577 Double/Take: +0.547 (-0.031) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.423) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.3% eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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