Dmitriy Obukhov recently asked about "4pt or 5pt?" rules of thumb. I'm not sure I have any great rules of thumb, but I do have some raw material for people to chew on. The theme I'm trying to illustrate below is "making the 5pt and leaving a double shot versus making the 4pt and leaving (almost) no shots." I show 11 examples below, but I have more examples if anyone wants to see them.
1
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 166 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aa--A-E-B-A-dDa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/5 6/5 | eq: +0.355 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.19% (G:20.35% B:1.03%)
42.81% (G:11.31% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.337...+0.373) - [100.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/4 | eq: +0.274 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.59% (G:19.99% B:1.01%)
44.41% (G:11.63% B:0.55%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.258...+0.289) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 01 second |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
2
     
    
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 153
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b--aAE-D----Cb--ccd---AA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/4* | eq: +0.250 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.70% (G:18.81% B:1.42%)
44.30% (G:13.74% B:0.85%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.233...+0.266) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/4* 5/4 | eq: +0.159 (-0.091) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.42% (G:17.86% B:1.22%)
46.58% (G:13.04% B:0.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.141...+0.177) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
3
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 161 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa-A-D-C-A-dD--ac-da---B-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/5 6/5 | eq: +0.003 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.77% (G:15.70% B:0.87%)
50.23% (G:15.74% B:0.92%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.012...+0.017) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/4 | eq: -0.055 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.29% (G:16.34% B:0.81%)
51.71% (G:15.85% B:0.77%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.070...-0.040) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
4
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 158
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--AaE-C---cDb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/5* 6/5 | eq: +0.246 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.62% (G:19.88% B:0.94%)
45.38% (G:12.23% B:0.74%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.230...+0.261) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 00 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/5* 5/4 | eq: +0.194 (-0.051) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.60% (G:18.96% B:0.74%)
46.40% (G:11.99% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.179...+0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 36 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
5
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 182 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 148
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aaaAaE-C---cDA--c-e----A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/5* 6/5 | eq: +0.634 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.95% (G:24.69% B:1.87%)
37.05% (G:8.44% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.626...+0.642) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/5* 5/4 | eq: +0.603 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.82% (G:24.86% B:1.85%)
38.18% (G:8.42% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.594...+0.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
6
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 154 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 153
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--AaD-C---bFb--d-e---A--:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/5* 5/4 | eq: +0.309 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.08% (G:16.75% B:0.77%)
42.92% (G:10.78% B:0.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.297...+0.320) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/5* 6/5 | eq: +0.237 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.62% (G:16.95% B:0.86%)
44.38% (G:12.56% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.222...+0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
7
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--aBD-BA--cC--Abcc-b--AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/4* | eq: -0.368 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.35% (G:12.35% B:0.63%)
56.65% (G:25.55% B:2.75%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.376...-0.359) - [86.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 16/15 6/4* | eq: -0.376 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.95% (G:12.60% B:0.61%)
57.05% (G:24.03% B:2.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.386...-0.367) - [7.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 9/8 6/4* | eq: -0.377 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.24% (G:12.27% B:0.56%)
57.76% (G:22.25% B:2.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.386...-0.368) - [6.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 5/4*(2) | eq: -0.415 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.73% (G:12.53% B:0.55%)
59.27% (G:22.41% B:1.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.434...-0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
8
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 157 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 164
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---aEAB--AcD-b-c-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 7/5* 6/4(2) | eq: +0.255 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.21% (G:19.12% B:0.89%)
44.79% (G:13.02% B:0.87%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.247...+0.263) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5* 7/5 | eq: +0.236 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.76% (G:18.85% B:0.75%)
45.24% (G:11.69% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.228...+0.243) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
9
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 144
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a---aADCC---aB--bbbd-bB---:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/4* | eq: +0.309 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.92% (G:19.33% B:1.08%)
44.08% (G:12.07% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.290...+0.327) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/12* 7/5 | eq: +0.224 (-0.085) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.18% (G:19.24% B:1.00%)
45.82% (G:11.33% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.206...+0.241) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/4* 5/4 | eq: +0.207 (-0.102) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.20% (G:19.63% B:0.91%)
46.80% (G:11.09% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.190...+0.225) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 36 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 206 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aaba-E-C---dE---c-cA---A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5(2) 6/4* | eq: +0.532 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.03% (G:22.76% B:1.46%)
39.97% (G:8.03% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.521...+0.544) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5(2) | eq: +0.475 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.50% (G:21.38% B:1.04%)
40.50% (G:8.25% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.465...+0.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 10 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 6/4*(2) | eq: +0.440 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.96% (G:23.47% B:1.33%)
42.04% (G:8.32% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (+0.418...+0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
11
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--AaD-D---dDa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/5* 6/5 | eq: +0.204 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.86% (G:19.23% B:1.30%)
46.14% (G:13.33% B:0.77%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.195...+0.213) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/5* 5/4 | eq: +0.143 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.36% (G:18.90% B:1.28%)
47.64% (G:13.38% B:0.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.134...+0.152) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release