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Position of the Day 10-2-23 - Rollout + Variant

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 5 October 2023, at 2:56 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-2-23 (Stick)

The issue with the original problem is that is we attack and go for the closeout now we don't win enough extra gammons to compensate for the risk we're taking by not locking up the win. In the variant you can see putting one of the opp's back to his midpoint makes it a lot closer and if we were to pull yet another checker from the opp's 6pt back to his midpoint it would blunder territory not to PoH. What we need to pay attention to in this type of situation is how much luggage the opponent has in the outfield assuming we have a relatively quick close out.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 107 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 112 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBBCB-B-A-bA--Baaccb--b-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	13/7 10/7	eq: +0.955
	Player: Opponent: 92.42% (G:13.49% B:0.38%) 7.58% (G:0.73% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.948...+0.962) - [100.0%] Duration: 37.2 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/2* 5/2	eq: +0.832 (-0.123)
	Player: Opponent: 85.64% (G:19.85% B:0.25%) 14.36% (G:3.27% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.825...+0.839) - [0.0%] Duration: 31.6 seconds
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 34564747 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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Variant

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 115 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 112 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBBCB-B-A-cA--Baacbb--b-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	13/7 10/7	eq: +0.956
	Player: Opponent: 90.90% (G:17.78% B:0.34%) 9.10% (G:1.26% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.950...+0.962) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/2* 5/2	eq: +0.929 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 85.79% (G:29.22% B:0.28%) 14.21% (G:2.94% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.923...+0.934) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 34092963 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 10-2-23
  Stick -- Monday, 2 October 2023, at 4:51 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-2-23
    rambiz -- Tuesday, 3 October 2023, at 10:48 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-2-23
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 3 October 2023, at 12:37 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-2-23 - Rollout + Variant
    Stick -- Thursday, 5 October 2023, at 2:56 a.m.