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pay now? How come?

Posted By: svilo
Date: Sunday, 19 November 2023, at 1:07 p.m.

THIS IS POS 4. CHAPTER 14 of Magriel 1976. How come XG results. Otherwise the proverb is valid - 5 more shots are too much to pay NOW even if the devil is disguised as X22. Preparing my vol.3 of Backgammon on the shoulders of a giant.
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 126
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 76
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBcC-B--B-----bbbbbb---:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout18/7 8/2eq: +0,148
Player:
Opponent:		49,81% (G:2,42% B:0,02%)
50,19% (G:5,50% B:0,19%)		Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,141...+0,156) - [100,0%]
Duration: 5,7 seconds
2.Rollout111/4eq: +0,111 (-0,037)
Player:
Opponent:		49,10% (G:2,59% B:0,01%)
50,90% (G:3,33% B:0,05%)		Conf.: ± 0,000 (+0,111...+0,111) - [0,0%]
Duration: 0,2 second
3.3-ply8/1eq: -0,023 (-0,171)
Player:
Opponent:		46,02% (G:3,41% B:0,02%)
53,98% (G:7,37% B:0,18%)
4.3-ply8/2 3/2eq: -0,048 (-0,197)
Player:
Opponent:		45,08% (G:3,71% B:0,02%)
54,92% (G:9,78% B:0,35%)
5.2-ply8/2 4/3eq: -0,048 (-0,197)
Player:
Opponent:		43,93% (G:3,23% B:0,01%)
56,07% (G:7,62% B:0,17%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

We win less games, less gammons and less backgammons. How come we are the favorite and have +148 equity.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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