So the original position that actually arose is shown below as variant 1. I knew that people would play 5/off and even though they'd be right, they would be wrong in other similar but not so similar spots and not realize it so I went with posting the variant as the original.
Comparing the originally posted position to variant 1 it's easy to tell the big difference. The opponent's eternally open six point will be a big thorn in his side even if we do play a little riskier and he gets and hits a shot. A lot more life after death for us so as the old saying goes, when the opp's board is torn up and there are gammons in the air, rip and tear.
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 119 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 58
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-abCCEB------------bccbb--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/4 6/3 | eq: +1.025 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.57% (G:33.76% B:1.78%)
13.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.017...+1.033) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18.4 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 5/Off | eq: +0.986 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 83.19% (G:37.47% B:2.37%)
16.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.977...+0.996) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18.4 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 4/1* 3/1 | eq: +0.946 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 81.92% (G:37.36% B:1.66%)
18.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.937...+0.955) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21.4 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93201754
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant 1
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 109 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 58
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-abCCEB-------------ccbbb-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/Off | eq: +1.199 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 92.57% (G:36.34% B:1.83%)
7.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.195...+1.204) - [99.9%]
Duration: 26.6 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 4/1* 3/1 | eq: +1.188 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 90.60% (G:39.92% B:1.69%)
9.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.184...+1.193) - [0.1%]
Duration: 27.9 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/4 6/3 | eq: +1.176 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 94.35% (G:30.05% B:1.27%)
5.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.171...+1.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23.5 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93201754
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|