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Contrasting two third-roll blunders

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Sunday, 24 December 2023, at 1:59 p.m.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 165
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-A-dD---cae----AA:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2)eq: +0.252
Player:
Opponent:		55.96% (G:17.50% B:1.00%)
44.04% (G:12.75% B:0.61%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23 24/18* eq: +0.169 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:		54.20% (G:15.05% B:0.86%)
45.80% (G:12.23% B:0.49%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-DA--cCaa-c-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.XG Roller++24/15* eq: +0.255
Player:
Opponent:		55.28% (G:18.05% B:1.37%)
44.72% (G:11.88% B:0.56%)
2.XG Roller++9/4 8/4eq: +0.061 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent:		50.88% (G:16.65% B:1.06%)
49.12% (G:14.45% B:0.64%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

The question: Both blunders involve eschewing a hit and making the four point. Why is the blunder in position 2 so much larger?

JLee

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