18/16 13/8 was my play as well. I personally don't fret over such small equity differences when I still routinely play megawhoppers that I don't understand. But FWIW, I think part of what's going on here is that your stragglers are vulnerable to attack, so you do well to button up as much as possible. Below is a variant that you might find interesting.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 138 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 149
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-----CBBBa--dDb--bAd-bA---:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/6 | eq: -0.517 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.83% (G:5.83% B:0.25%)
64.17% (G:11.07% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.525...-0.510) - [49.5%]
Duration: 12 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/16 13/8 | eq: -0.518 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.93% (G:5.95% B:0.23%)
64.07% (G:11.12% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.526...-0.510) - [45.1%]
Duration: 13 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/3 5/3 | eq: -0.524 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.61% (G:5.84% B:0.24%)
64.39% (G:10.46% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.532...-0.516) - [5.4%]
Duration: 12 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 18/13 8/6 | eq: -0.537 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.18% (G:2.95% B:0.08%)
64.82% (G:7.37% B:0.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.545...-0.530) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release