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Something to remember about the match score

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 1 May 2024, at 1:27 a.m.

In Response To: The backgame paid off! Now what? (Note match score) (Timothy Chow)

Often, one should be more hesitant (compared to a money game) to redouble when leading 4a5a, because in a money game, part of the potency of a 4-cube is the threat of winning 8 points with a gammon win, and of course ATS there is no such threat. Redoubling leads to DMP, and gammons are irrelevant on both sides.

XG redoubles this position for money, but it's not a huge redouble, so I thought it would not be a redouble ATS. But the potency of Blue's recube in this position doesn't lie in the gammon wins; it lies in Blue's winning potential. And White's take point is elevated. So it's a much bigger redouble ATS than for money.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 82
7 point match
pip: 173
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBBBA----A---b-AcfCAc-:1:1:1:00:3:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.56% (G:13.75% B:0.61%) 73.65% (G:9.91% B:0.48%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.44% (G:16.06% B:0.45%) 26.35% (G:17.47% B:0.67%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.402 +1.060
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.780 (-0.175)±0.011 (+0.769..+0.791)
Redouble/Take:+0.955±0.016 (+0.939..+0.971)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.045)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 82
Unlimited Game
pip: 173
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBBBA----A---b-AcfCAc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.57% (G:15.22% B:0.57%) 72.65% (G:16.09% B:0.66%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.43% (G:14.97% B:0.31%) 27.35% (G:14.76% B:0.26%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.436 +0.941
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.760 (-0.047)±0.013 (+0.747..+0.772)
Redouble/Take:+0.807±0.022 (+0.785..+0.828)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.193)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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