This position came up recently in the facebook group that plays a series of unlimited games against XG. Everybody correctly hit loose, but there was a bit of discussion on whether to hit loose on the four or five. Hitting loose on the four gives more builders and a small reduction of return hits, while the five point is, well, the *five* point. Which is better?
The upshot is that it doesn't really matter. After a 20736 rollout, it's still statistically tied. If someone else wants to do a longer rollout, go for it, but I'm satisfied with it doesn't matter in any real practical sense. And sometimes that's enough.
BTW, I went with the five point since I wasn't sure. The hive went for the four point.
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 134 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 146
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BaaDC----dD---bAb-b-baA:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 7/5* | eq: -0.223 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.77% (G:13.16% B:0.67%)
54.23% (G:22.71% B:0.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.226...-0.220) - [78.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 6/4* | eq: -0.225 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.78% (G:12.44% B:0.66%)
54.22% (G:22.66% B:0.71%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.228...-0.222) - [21.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | Bar/22 18/16 | eq: -0.293 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.71% (G:10.24% B:0.52%)
56.29% (G:22.05% B:0.42%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | Bar/20 | eq: -0.370 (-0.147) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.61% (G:10.62% B:0.58%)
58.39% (G:24.58% B:0.41%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | Bar/22 13/11 | eq: -0.372 (-0.149) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.56% (G:11.20% B:0.64%)
58.44% (G:25.64% B:0.95%) | |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10