Ahead in the race with all the checkers escaped the plan should be to simply move the runners into the home board and past the anchor. 15/11(2) looks good since it moves a point past white's checkers on the midpoint and blocks sixes from the anchor. Perhaps I played that too quickly, since it's the seventh best play and a .093 error. The problem being, as Tim points out, is that the eleven will be hard to clear.
The right idea is to stack the midpoint which will be easier to clear. Then the normal looking 8/4 is slightly inferior to 8/6 3/1 since a spare on the 6 allows a small roll to be played without exposing a shot or breaking the board. 15/13(2) 8/6 3/1 looked odd at first but upon reflection makes a lot of sense. The other homeboard shuffling plays are minor errors as long as accompanied by stacking the midpoint. The QF plays do not fare well here.
I played around with some variants - White's homeboard blots are irrelevant; moving the checker from the 23 to the 22 doesn't change much of anything. But moving whites checkers around so that the race is about even makes blocking via the eleven point the right idea.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 122 | | 5 point match | pip: 110
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBBbB-C---cB-B-a-cb-aab-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/13(2) 8/6 3/1 | eq: +0.554 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.47% (G:2.38% B:0.10%)
32.53% (G:1.86% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.546...+0.561) - [99.6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 24 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/13(2) 8/4 | eq: +0.539 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.06% (G:2.47% B:0.11%)
32.94% (G:1.82% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.532...+0.547) - [0.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 15/13(2) 8/6 4/2 | eq: +0.528 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.76% (G:2.04% B:0.05%)
33.24% (G:1.78% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.521...+0.536) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 15/13(2) 3/1(2) | eq: +0.527 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.23% (G:2.35% B:0.10%)
33.77% (G:1.90% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.520...+0.534) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 15/13 15/11 8/6 | eq: +0.493 (-0.060) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.93% (G:8.51% B:0.58%)
35.07% (G:4.99% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.485...+0.502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 13/9(2) | eq: +0.467 (-0.086) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.34% (G:4.41% B:0.18%)
35.66% (G:3.55% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.459...+0.476) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 15/11(2) | eq: +0.460 (-0.093) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.70% (G:4.27% B:0.21%)
35.30% (G:3.94% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.452...+0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout1 | 15/13 15/9 | eq: +0.436 (-0.117) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.83% (G:7.98% B:0.47%)
36.17% (G:5.86% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.427...+0.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2