Magriel's criteria suggest a safe play, so I decided to move my blot on the 15pt. However, there are still plenty of indirect fly shots, not to mention our straggler in the opponent's home board. My interpretation of these results is that making the 8pt reduces our blot count, which limits the damage if White starts to attack. Not that the 8pt doesn't have some value, but I do think Magriel's heuristic that points 6 pips apart can't be part of the same prime is still valid.
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 165 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 144
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cB--BC-A---dE-A---ccb--A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/8 | eq: +0.196 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.34% (G:19.91% B:1.94%)
45.66% (G:16.39% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.183...+0.210) - [50.3%]
Duration: 6 minutes 01 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/14 13/8 | eq: +0.196 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.60% (G:18.59% B:1.76%)
45.40% (G:15.95% B:0.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.181...+0.211) - [49.7%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23 15/10 | eq: +0.112 (-0.084) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.36% (G:19.74% B:2.11%)
47.64% (G:18.29% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.096...+0.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/8 6/5 | eq: +0.104 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.63% (G:18.39% B:1.63%)
47.37% (G:17.50% B:0.72%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.090...+0.119) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 15/9 | eq: +0.101 (-0.096) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.36% (G:18.77% B:1.76%)
47.64% (G:18.18% B:0.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.086...+0.115) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 36 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant 1:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 144
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cB--BC-A---dE-A---bbbb-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/8 | eq: -0.047 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.49% (G:16.45% B:1.50%)
50.51% (G:19.59% B:0.77%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.061...-0.033) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 15/10 | eq: -0.081 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.87% (G:16.04% B:1.37%)
51.13% (G:20.48% B:0.92%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.095...-0.068) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant 2:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 165 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 144
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cB--BC-A---dE-A---ccb--A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/13 8/5 | eq: +0.161 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.69% (G:18.33% B:1.59%)
46.31% (G:16.17% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.147...+0.176) - [92.9%]
Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/8 | eq: +0.147 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.61% (G:18.52% B:1.64%)
46.39% (G:17.13% B:0.68%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.133...+0.160) - [7.1%]
Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release