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Two contrasting Variants (1 pip apart)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 17 May 2024, at 4:50 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout + 2 variants (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 165
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBB--C-A---dE-A---ccb--A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue blot on 15pt

1.Rollout124/23 13/8eq: +0.053
Player:
Opponent:
50.84% (G:18.48% B:1.84%)
49.16% (G:17.93% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.036...+0.071) - [99.6%]
Duration: 20 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 15/10eq: +0.020 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
50.29% (G:19.03% B:2.05%)
49.71% (G:19.28% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.003...+0.038) - [0.4%]
Duration: 21 minutes 23 seconds
3.Rollout115/14 13/8eq: +0.006 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
50.09% (G:17.22% B:1.68%)
49.91% (G:17.80% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.009...+0.021) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout115/9eq: -0.008 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
49.65% (G:17.81% B:1.67%)
50.35% (G:18.41% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.024...+0.007) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 03 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 43316907
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In the original position of this thread, Blue owns his 5pt. In the variants of this post, Blue instead owns his 3pt.

Variant 1 differs from Variant 2 by 1 pip. Instead of Blue's blot in the upper right being on his 15pt (above), it is on his 16pt (below). This difference makes all the difference in whether Blue should cover his 8pt.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 165
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBB--C-A---dE--A--ccb--A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue blot on 16pt

1.Rollout124/23 16/11eq: +0.050
Player:
Opponent:
50.91% (G:19.05% B:2.04%)
49.09% (G:18.73% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.034...+0.067) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 13/8eq: +0.005 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
49.98% (G:18.51% B:1.93%)
50.02% (G:19.00% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.013...+0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout116/10eq: -0.022 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
49.42% (G:18.25% B:1.84%)
50.58% (G:18.96% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.041...-0.003) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout116/15 13/8eq: -0.028 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
49.57% (G:17.39% B:1.65%)
50.43% (G:18.78% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.045...-0.012) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 09 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9755988
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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