[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

So easy ? - Rollout and side question for Nack

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Friday, 6 December 2024, at 1:15 p.m.

In Response To: So easy ? (John O'Hagan)

This kind of position is often overlooked : no escape move, no safe hit, no pick and pass, strong board and pip count lead. So why not stay quiet and wait for the opponent’s play.

On the contrary, in this position, you need to take the initiative, or White will, when it will be her turn.





White is Joueur 1

score: 0
pip: 97
5 point match
pip: 76
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 2
XGID=-BBEaBB-----A-a--bcbbA-bb-:0:0:1:12:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 12

1.Rollout16/5 6/4* eq: -0,075
Player:
Opponent:		47,15% (G:8,43% B:0,06%)
52,85% (G:16,22% B:0,83%)		Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,083...-0,066) - [100,0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 5/4* eq: -0,219 (-0,144)
Player:
Opponent:		44,75% (G:5,33% B:0,05%)
55,25% (G:15,87% B:0,79%)		Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,226...-0,212) - [0,0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout16/4* 4/3eq: -0,266 (-0,191)
Player:
Opponent:		43,77% (G:6,82% B:0,23%)
56,23% (G:19,06% B:1,06%)		Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,281...-0,251) - [0,0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds
4.Rollout112/11 3/1eq: -0,295 (-0,220)
Player:
Opponent:		41,45% (G:6,72% B:0,16%)
58,55% (G:9,98% B:0,28%)		Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,301...-0,289) - [0,0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout13/2 3/1eq: -0,330 (-0,255)
Player:
Opponent:		40,63% (G:7,27% B:0,08%)
59,37% (G:11,20% B:0,29%)		Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,336...-0,324) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

So no passive move like 3/2 3/1, nor duplication (?) of the 7s like 12/11 3/1, both big blunders. Hit now by sacrificing your point six with 6/5 6/4*. If Blue is hit back (all the 4s + double 6 and 6-3) with 14 throws, you are still a slight favorite to enter on the open 3 or 4 White point and get some counterplay.

But if White stay on the bar with 44% of the throw, or get a six without hitting - 17% -, it is a road to victory. So all in all, with 61%, no hesitation.

Side question for Nack:

This position was submitted to a local club, and someone suggested this odd duplication (?) of the 7s like 12/11 3/1.

Is there a position where the duplication of the 7 will be the best move ?

If yes, can this position be reached by playing best moves ?

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.