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RO and comments

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 24 December 2024, at 12:22 a.m.

In Response To: 62 to play (John O'Hagan)

How to play this 62 after correctly playing on for the gammon? 21/15 6/4 clearly wins the most games since you can cash after anything but a 61 by White. PoH on the 2 clearly wins less often but wins a lot more gammons. The key is how many extra net gammons vs how many extra single game losses. Since the gammon value is .5 in a money game, plays like pointing on the deuce here are correct if you get a net of at least 2 extra g's for every extra single game loss. Here that ratio is 17.7/1.5 as you can see in the rollout. Lots of extra net gammons with only 1.5% extra single game losses. This would suggest that pointing on the deuce would be correct by a wide margin. However it's only correct by .017.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 59
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-CCDBB-------a---bAbbg-:1:1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout18/2* 4/2eq: +0.968
Player:
Opponent:		81.35% (G:19.10% B:0.59%)
18.65% (G:1.45% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.965...+0.972) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35.7 seconds
2.Rollout121/15 6/4eq: +0.951 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		81.76% (G:6.14% B:0.17%)
18.24% (G:1.41% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.950...+0.952) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.2 seconds
3.Rollout121/13eq: +0.941 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		82.86% (G:6.33% B:0.17%)
17.14% (G:1.06% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.941...+0.942) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.4 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
First 12 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves: 3-ply Red, cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

So why is PoH only right by .017?

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