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Position of the Day 05-12-25 - Pay now/later - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 25 July 2025, at 3:11 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-12-25 - Pay now/later (Stick)

So like John I both looked at and dismissed paying now. I was surprised XGR+ had it as close as it did then a rollout went and made paying now correct! The obvious points can be made, we're super ecstatic if we pay now and are missed (16/36). When hit there's still life after death as we're favored to come in and the opponent still has his two back men to deal with. Also, not paying now is just really, really bad. Killing those spares just on the hope that the opponent either rolls something awkward or we find a natural next turn isn't that appealing. Even with all this post hoc rational it's tough to leave a double shot when the opp's board/offensive position is so strong. And that's why we chickened out and paid later.

(worst part is it paid off as I rolled like a genius after this so I learned the wrong lesson)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 105
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB--DDC----b----cBbbbb---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout118/14 18/13eq: -0.125
Player:
Opponent:		53.03% (G:10.04% B:0.63%)
46.97% (G:12.24% B:0.39%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.128...-0.121) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
2.Rollout17/2 6/2eq: -0.140 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		51.22% (G:11.78% B:0.73%)
48.78% (G:11.83% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.144...-0.136) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 52 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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