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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 5 November 2006, at 4:32 p.m.

In Response To: Shimmy double 4s (Stick)

Was it just me that had problems with this or are the lot of you a bunch of non-posting whores? =) OTB I was happy as a pig in shit to toss double 4s here and jumped @ 24/20(2) 13/9(2) ... then I saw play B, and then I saw play C...and then I spent 5 minutes trying to figure out what was best only to come to the same terms Snowie did. I really don't know. I played my first thought but as you can see the plays are almost interchangeable. I won't bore you [today] w/the details of the position you can see yourself.

Money Game
139
169
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/20(3) 13/9 0.353
0.4% 13.3% 59.7% 40.3% 7.7% 0.2%
Live cube rollout: 0.388
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.252 ±0.006, - live cube: 0.388 ±0.016. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 133803 games), played 2-ply (fast), cube 2-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, without race database.
2 R 24/20(2) 13/9(2) 0.353 (-0.000)
0.6% 15.0% 60.1% 39.9% 10.2% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: 0.380
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.252 ±0.007, - live cube: 0.380 ±0.015. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 131551 games), played 2-ply (fast), cube 2-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, without race database.
3 R 24/20(2) 8/4(2) 0.336 (-0.017)
0.5% 17.3% 58.1% 41.9% 8.8% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: 0.336
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.249 ±0.006, - live cube: 0.336 ±0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 149688 games), played 2-ply (fast), cube 2-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, without race database.

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