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Rollout
Posted By: Stick In Response To: 41S-54S-42? (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 5 November 2006, at 4:53 p.m.
First off let's toss some plays out of the equation. The loose hit, 9/5 13/11. Honestly wouldn't be the most destructive play I've ever made in my life, it fights for the five point early in the game but makes no tangible improvements. It is contingent on your opponent missing all those blots you're shuffling around. It was easy for me to eliminate this play in the face of other plays that make a definite improvement.
Between 13/9 23/21 & 13/9 24/22 the former has to get the nod because of its strive for the most advanced anchor and the duplication of fours, so we can safely toss out 24/22 13/9.
That brings us to the two plays I rolled out and I'm mildly surprised the difference between the plays is so huge. What making the 4 pt. does is put pressure on your opponent to roll an immediate 4 or try to withstand the upcoming attack that will occur if he doesn't. Another plus side of making the 4 pt. is watching your opponent misplay a following 4-2 or 4-3. Small 'easter egg' bonuses that I like finding in the opening moves where your opponent may have rolled a good number but it's almost wasted since he doesn't know how to play it.
I don't feel like typing anymore...so do your own evaluation lol
Money Game 158 162 Board image courtesy of GO-Figure
# Ply Move Equity 1 R 8/4 6/4 0.054 0.7% 15.1% 51.1% 48.9% 13.0% 0.6% 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.042 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 176708 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. 2 R 23/21 13/9 -0.003 (-0.058) 0.5% 11.6% 50.1% 49.9% 12.0% 0.4% 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.003 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 177396 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
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