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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 9 November 2006, at 7:55 p.m.

In Response To: 41S-63S-42? (Stick)

Hitting here is indeed correct as the other plays leave White too free to consolidate his position. Which hit is the question? It seems that striving for the advanced anchor now while your opponent is on the bar comes out on top. Another factor in this decision is that you have now semi-stripped the midpoint if you play 13/7*. By advancing if you are hit back by one of the many bar entering numbers you'll have a checker nicely placed ready to make the golden anchor and equalize the game.

Money Game
158
162
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/20 9/7* 0.010
0.7% 13.8% 49.8% 50.2% 12.5% 0.6%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.010 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 153002 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 13/7* -0.011 (-0.022)
0.9% 15.3% 49.5% 50.5% 14.9% 0.9%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.007 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 143014 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 8/4 6/4 -0.014 (-0.025)
0.6% 14.5% 48.9% 51.1% 12.9% 0.6%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.006 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 170746 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
4 R 24/22 13/9 -0.029 (-0.040)
0.5% 12.2% 49.0% 51.0% 12.2% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.019 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 175035 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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