Explain this rollout result

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Explain this rollout result

Posted By: bob koca
Date: Saturday, 20 September 2008, at 11:40 p.m.

This is from an earlier thread http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=25527 in which several explained their choice. Mine was 13/7 24/22 hoping to do some major work while he is no the bar. No one came up with the rollout winner. I would never have come up with it OTB but I can think of some reasons for it now. But still hard to believe somewhat. What is your explanation?
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, bobk 0
Move number 8: gnubg to play 22

gnubg 139

bobk 153
Position ID: sGfwA0Bsm8EBMA Match ID: EQEJAAAAAAAA

• gnubg moves 24/22 13/7

# Ply Move Equity

1 R 24/22 13/11 8/6(2) +0.645329

0.705322 0.412417 0.006548 - 0.294678 0.057509 0.003071 +0.769030 +0.645329

0.000320 0.000515 0.000113 - 0.000320 0.000208 0.000053 0.000861 0.001225

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

36478 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2 R 24/22(2) 13/9 +0.641405 ( -0.003924)

0.716343 0.381380 0.007473 - 0.283657 0.056497 0.002863 +0.762178 +0.641405

0.000346 0.000547 0.000166 - 0.000346 0.000225 0.000051 0.000946 0.001277

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

36473 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 24/22 8/4 8/6 +0.638451 ( -0.006877)

0.705096 0.407723 0.006481 - 0.294904 0.056888 0.003012 +0.764496 +0.638451

0.000588 0.000993 0.000184 - 0.000588 0.000455 0.000101 0.001593 0.002271

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

10030 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

• 4 R 24/22 13/7 +0.634678 ( -0.010650)

0.707557 0.395513 0.008178 - 0.292443 0.063477 0.003167 +0.752160 +0.634678

0.001045 0.001530 0.000298 - 0.001045 0.000672 0.000166 0.002757 0.003890

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

4497 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5 R 24/22(2) 8/6(2) +0.626250 ( -0.019079)

0.706974 0.385400 0.006146 - 0.293026 0.054075 0.002246 +0.749172 +0.626250

0.001232 0.002209 0.000367 - 0.001232 0.000821 0.000433 0.003362 0.004875

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2308 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

I stopped rolling out a candidate when it feel 3.1 s.d. behind. I actually rolled out 17 plays with the full results as:
1. Rollout 24/22 13/11 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.645329
0.705322 0.412417 0.006548 - 0.294678 0.057509 0.003071 CL +0.769030 CF +0.645329
[0.000320 0.000515 0.000113 - 0.000320 0.000208 0.000053 CL 0.000861 CF 0.001225]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
36478 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 24/22(2) 13/9 Eq.: +0.641405 ( -0.003924)
0.716343 0.381380 0.007473 - 0.283657 0.056497 0.002863 CL +0.762178 CF +0.641405
[0.000346 0.000547 0.000166 - 0.000346 0.000225 0.000051 CL 0.000946 CF 0.001277]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
36473 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 24/22 8/4 8/6 Eq.: +0.638451 ( -0.006877)
0.705096 0.407723 0.006481 - 0.294904 0.056888 0.003012 CL +0.764496 CF +0.638451
[0.000588 0.000993 0.000184 - 0.000588 0.000455 0.000101 CL 0.001593 CF 0.002271]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
10030 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4. Rollout 24/22 13/7 Eq.: +0.634678 ( -0.010650)
0.707557 0.395513 0.008178 - 0.292443 0.063477 0.003167 CL +0.752160 CF +0.634678
[0.001045 0.001530 0.000298 - 0.001045 0.000672 0.000166 CL 0.002757 CF 0.003890]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
4497 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5. Rollout 24/22(2) 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.626250 ( -0.019079)
0.706974 0.385400 0.006146 - 0.293026 0.054075 0.002246 CL +0.749172 CF +0.626250
[0.001232 0.002209 0.000367 - 0.001232 0.000821 0.000433 CL 0.003362 CF 0.004875]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2308 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
6. Rollout 24/22(2) 13/11 8/6 Eq.: +0.619888 ( -0.025440)
0.697886 0.400649 0.007067 - 0.302114 0.057639 0.002526 CL +0.743324 CF +0.619888
[0.001491 0.002625 0.000582 - 0.001491 0.001050 0.000251 CL 0.004119 CF 0.005965]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1511 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
7. Rollout 24/22 13/11(3) Eq.: +0.615037 ( -0.030291)
0.698497 0.397112 0.007972 - 0.301503 0.055868 0.003011 CL +0.743198 CF +0.615037
[0.001974 0.002715 0.000612 - 0.001974 0.001399 0.000275 CL 0.005160 CF 0.007325]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1139 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
8. Rollout 13/11 8/4 8/6 Eq.: +0.608862 ( -0.036467)
0.687811 0.428518 0.006673 - 0.312189 0.065972 0.003795 CL +0.741045 CF +0.608862
[0.001878 0.003291 0.000704 - 0.001878 0.001315 0.000312 CL 0.005713 CF 0.008062]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
970 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
9. Rollout 24/22 13/9 8/6 Eq.: +0.602930 ( -0.042399)
0.693361 0.405730 0.006650 - 0.306639 0.065538 0.003245 CL +0.730319 CF +0.602930
[0.002213 0.003667 0.000759 - 0.002213 0.001825 0.000344 CL 0.006230 CF 0.009601]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
728 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
10. Rollout 24/22 13/11 8/4 Eq.: +0.602371 ( -0.042958)
0.691444 0.412757 0.006762 - 0.308556 0.067657 0.003593 CL +0.731156 CF +0.602371
[0.002546 0.004035 0.000713 - 0.002546 0.001944 0.000424 CL 0.006748 CF 0.008992]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
565 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
11. Rollout 24/22 13/9 13/11 Eq.: +0.597348 ( -0.047981)
0.694710 0.394944 0.009938 - 0.305290 0.064925 0.003817 CL +0.725560 CF +0.597348
[0.002803 0.003831 0.000837 - 0.002803 0.001866 0.000412 CL 0.007463 CF 0.010801]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
564 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
12. Rollout 13/9 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.587423 ( -0.057906)
0.685392 0.403681 0.008265 - 0.314608 0.063408 0.003883 CL +0.715439 CF +0.587423
[0.002541 0.004567 0.000907 - 0.002541 0.001849 0.000392 CL 0.007342 CF 0.009688]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
492 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
13. Rollout 13/9 13/11(2) Eq.: +0.559111 ( -0.086218)
0.684983 0.385751 0.007841 - 0.315017 0.064220 0.003939 CL +0.695399 CF +0.559111
[0.005238 0.007391 0.001451 - 0.005238 0.003113 0.000496 CL 0.014052 CF 0.020404]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
156 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
14. Rollout 13/5 Eq.: +0.555201 ( -0.090127)
0.682689 0.401715 0.008343 - 0.317311 0.072297 0.005552 CL +0.697586 CF +0.555201
[0.005061 0.008222 0.001590 - 0.005061 0.003543 0.001112 CL 0.015183 CF 0.020570]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
147 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
15. Rollout 24/22 13/11(2) 8/6 Eq.: +0.542368 ( -0.102960)
0.675037 0.394700 0.007887 - 0.324963 0.069012 0.003427 CL +0.680222 CF +0.542368
[0.004911 0.007086 0.001847 - 0.004911 0.002667 0.000569 CL 0.013714 CF 0.019399]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
16. Rollout 24/22(2) 13/11(2) Eq.: +0.539105 ( -0.106224)
0.688587 0.380436 0.005175 - 0.311413 0.058319 0.004720 CL +0.699746 CF +0.539105
[0.005946 0.007788 0.001791 - 0.005946 0.002522 0.001212 CL 0.014876 CF 0.028823]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
153 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
17. Rollout 24/22(2) 8/4 Eq.: +0.533854 ( -0.111475)
0.684849 0.373565 0.008626 - 0.315151 0.067775 0.002853 CL +0.681262 CF +0.533854
[0.005088 0.007951 0.001612 - 0.005088 0.004183 0.000832 CL 0.012441 CF 0.017591]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 837296181 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

gnubg	139

bobk	153
Position ID: `sGfwA0Bsm8EBMA` Match ID: `EQEJAAAAAAAA`

Messages In This Thread

Explain this rollout result
bob koca -- Saturday, 20 September 2008, at 11:40 p.m.
- Explain this rollout result
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 20 September 2008, at 11:50 p.m.
  - Explain this rollout result
    bob koca -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 12:27 a.m.
    - Explain this rollout result
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 3:57 a.m.
      - Explain this rollout result
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 4:01 a.m.
        
        Explain this rollout result
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 4:14 a.m.
        
        Explain this rollout result
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 4:22 a.m.
- Explain this rollout result
  rummer1973 -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 1:22 a.m.
- Explain this rollout result
  happyjuggler0 -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 1:52 a.m.
  - Well Done! NT
    rummer1973 -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 1:56 a.m.
  - Explain this rollout result
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 2:52 a.m.
    - Explain this rollout result
      happyjuggler0 -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 4:10 a.m.
      - Explain this rollout result
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 4:17 a.m.
    - Explain this rollout result
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 5:09 a.m.
      - Explain this rollout result
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 6:19 a.m.
        
        Explain this rollout result
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 6:28 a.m.
        
        Explain this rollout result
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 8:04 a.m.
- Explain this rollout result
  Neil Robins -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 7:47 a.m.
- Explain this rollout result
  Stick -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 9:34 a.m.
- Explain this rollout result
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 3:53 p.m.

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