Rollout

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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 12 November 2006, at 7:14 a.m.

In Response To: 41S-66B-42? (Stick)

Basically too close to call right now. Each play has its own merits. For starters 13/9 6/4 makes the 9 pt. and leaves no new blots for White to shoot at. Fact is though that White is so far ahead in the race that he isn't worried about hitting another blot, he'd like to simply run at the first chance. For instance an immediate 5-4 and White should bolt off that anchor so having a blot in your inner board could immediately be a liability. One would think since you're so far behind not striving for the advanced anchor would be a plus, but it's not so clear that's the point ....
8/4 6/4. The obvious is that it makes an inner board point, and quite a good one to boot. Also my favorite pasttime of unstacking the 6 pt. naturally comes into play. What it doesn't do is make that 9 pt. and block White's advanced anchor a little bit more.
I find it a bit interesting that advancing with 23/21 comes out on top. Obviously the 9 pt. is an asset and a hindrance in White's path of trying to bring everything hope but advancing 23/21? What it does is put pressure on White's outfield, it forces your opponent to roll natural point making numbers because now you cover all facets of the board. Anchoring up is probably what you'll end up doing and since White is never a favorite to make the 5 pt. you'll be quite a thorn in his side if you're able to grab the 4 pt.
Money Game
143
162

Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity

1 R 23/21 13/9 -0.487

0.3% 7.1% 37.8% 62.2% 15.9% 0.5%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.334 ą0.005. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 187760 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

2 R 8/4 6/4 -0.503 (-0.016)

0.4% 8.5% 36.8% 63.2% 17.2% 0.6%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.354 ą0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 179796 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

3 R 13/9 6/4 -0.505 (-0.018)

0.3% 7.6% 37.1% 62.9% 16.7% 0.6%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.352 ą0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 176984 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

Money Game
143
162
Board image courtesy of *GO-Figure*

Messages In This Thread

41S-66B-42?
Stick -- Thursday, 9 November 2006, at 7:59 p.m.
- Re: Opening 4-1(split), 6-6, 4-2
  DC-ohio -- Friday, 10 November 2006, at 2:05 a.m.
- Re: Opening 4-1(split), 6-6, 4-2
  Ian Shaw -- Friday, 10 November 2006, at 5:28 p.m.
- Re: Opening 4-1(split), 6-6, 4-2
  DC-Ohio -- Friday, 10 November 2006, at 6:38 p.m.
  - Re: Re: Opening 4-1(split), 6-6, 4-2
    Bryce -- Friday, 10 November 2006, at 8:26 p.m.
- Rollout
  Stick -- Sunday, 12 November 2006, at 7:14 a.m.

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#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	23/21 13/9	-0.487
			0.3% 7.1% 37.8% 62.2% 15.9% 0.5%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.334 ą0.005. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 187760 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
	2	R	8/4 6/4	-0.503 (-0.016)
			0.4% 8.5% 36.8% 63.2% 17.2% 0.6%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.354 ą0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 179796 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
	3	R	13/9 6/4	-0.505 (-0.018)
			0.3% 7.6% 37.1% 62.9% 16.7% 0.6%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.352 ą0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 176984 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.