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Snakebit
Posted By: Bill Riles
Date: Wednesday, 8 October 2008, at 6:15 p.m.
In reviewing my Denver matches, and one other Denver match sent to me, I notice an alarming pattern that I've also seen in my matches in other recent tourneys.
I'm snakebit !!
Take the first round of the Continental Divide Jackpot. I draw a very good player in Mark Antrinikian. I get beat soundly on the scoreboard, 11-4 in a nine game match; however, I left the table feeling okay that I'd played well, Mark had played well, and there were no real crushing joker sequences resulting in big score swings that can really bum you out. I put in into Snowie to see I'd played 3.2 (very good for me), Mark had played a very respectable 6.0 (he has played much better against me in the past), but I got hung with a -21.7 luck rating.
Then my good friend Alan Grunwald sends me a file of his first round Continental Divide Jackpot match against the formidable Ray Fogerlund. Alan played a superb 1.8 against a 5.0 for Ray (not bad for most of us but certainly above what Ray generally plays). But the difference in our matches? -- Alan combines his 1.8 rating with a +21.1 luck rating. Alan won 11-1.
Where's the justice?
In the match that knocked me out of the consolation I did not play particularly well, but a fair deal better than my opponent, but I coupled the playing advantage with a -22.7 luck rating in a ten game match to lose 4-9.
In my five recorded matches in Denver my luck ratings were -21.7 (lost in nine games), -3.5 (won in fourteen games), +2.8 (won in eleven games), -12.0 (lost in ten games), and -22.7 (lost in ten games). And I thought the objective of longer matches was to balance out the randomness of dice. Stupid me. A cumulative negative double digit average luck rating in five long matches doubtlessly happens to others all the time too.
This performance follows the Madison tourney where my first two matches were particularly cruel losses to UBK and Stick. UBK and I played a very good competitive match and, with a bit of luck of my own, just when it looks like I have it sewn up at DMP he rolls the requisite 1-6 (only number) and I follow with a magnificent waltz over his four point board with a blot -- loss. The Stickster was down 0-5/9 and looked headed to 0-7/9 when I roll the 1-6 followed by the ace hit to lead only 5-2/9 and never saw another roll -- loss. Later, Bill Davis had already congratulated me on my win at DMP as he sits back and casually rolls out his loss -- yeah !! casually rolls 6's, 5's, and 6's. I lose.
Maybe I need to alter my lifestyle, start going to church, or something !!
Suggestions?
(this post is true, but essentially made in jest -- as sad as it is)
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