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BGonline.org Forums
Luck vs. Skill - Is A Rules Change Needed?
Posted By: trichard
Date: Thursday, 9 October 2008, at 8:36 p.m.
I could be wrong, but I get the impression that in recent years, more tournament matches are decided by luck instead of skill, or to put it another way, luck has become more dominant. The reason is that more players are playing at a very high skill level, thanks to the bots and forums like this. Since the amount of improvement has a top limit (no errors), and practically speaking, no one is going to consistently play better than an ER of 3.0, matches are being decided by the dice, most particularly by jokers. And since most jokers are the rolling of doubles, I have come to believe that a rules change is in order.
Specifically, what if the rules were changed so that doubles would only give you two moves instead of four? Wouldn't this in itself reduce the incidence of jokers and make skill a greater determinant of match outcomes? I realize the bots would have to be reprogrammed, and we would all have to go through a lengthy relearning process, but wouldn't the relearning process in itself tilt the scales toward the most talented players?
I believe Neil said he went for two years without winning a tournament (prior to this summer), and there have been a number of recent contributions to this forum commenting on tournament losses in which the player with the lower ER in the match was overcome by the luck factor. Shouldn't the very best in any competition win more often than we are seeing in backgammon today?
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