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match equity question

Posted By: Frank_N_Stein
Date: Tuesday, 14 October 2008, at 6:00 a.m.


Match to 7, Blue leads 4 to
White on roll. Cube Action?
15
11
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

why does the board not show the checkers off for white? what did I do wrong?

I need your help. Im trying to learn match equities and Im not getting it. I can do the math, but not sure what to do with the output.

Some one asked me about a position if its a cube and if its a take/pass. Instinctively, I know the answer is it is never a cube/easy take/recube, but I do not know how to explain it. This is where I am hoping you can help

The match is to 7 Blue has 4 pts (3 away) .... holds a 2 cube .... on roll. White has o pts (7 away)

Blue on roll offered a 4 cube to White putting the match on the line.

I know this much.

If Blue does not recube to 4 and wins the game, he is up 6-0 crawford with a 91% match winning chances.

If Blue does not recube and loses the game, he is 4-2 with a 65% match winning chances.

If Blue recubes to 4, White will take and recube for the match.

If Blue wins the game, he has 100% match winning chances and wins the match.

If Blue loses the game, he loses 50% match winning chances and loses the match. (Not sure of the 50%)

If White wins the game, he has 100% match winning chances.

This is where I am stuck. How do I proceed?

How do I explain the rest of the math and why or why not Blue has a cube?

Thanks in advance

Frank

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