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Gammonsite Dice

Posted By: adambulldog
Date: Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 3:25 a.m.

Earlier this evening I played a chap on gammonsite who complained that I was getting "trial player dice." He explained that the site allows new players to win more often than their skill would predict, with the goal of gaining new subscribers. His rating was around 1740. I beat him easily, but I might have gotten the better of the dice.

I looked on his profile, where he has the following screed posted:

Unfortunately, we don't play with the dice here: they play with us.

Part of my Ph.D. is in Statistics so I am particularly sensitive to dice that don't behave in a random manner. Many players' experience here (but on other sites too) suggests that the dice are not random. A couple of times in the last day or two, for example, I've lost matches when my opponent has rolled 4 or 5 doubles in a row in a roll-off. That's possible, of course, with real dice but the odds of 4 doubles in a row is 1 in 1,296 and 5, 1 in 7,776 - and I don't make that many rolls in a month, nevermind in 24 hours.

The dice statistics reported on this site are misleading in a way. They show averages (statistical means) and those are OK. But I suspect that the variances are not what you'd expect for binomial distributions. The result is that people experience runs of good/bad "luck" much more often and longer here than with natural dice.

I also suspect that the games have been over-engineered to make them more attractive to new members so a commercial motivation interferes with the game. Blots are hit far too often when people take unconventional risks so the site encourages conservative play.

Players on this site deserve a better dice program than the one we have. I don't think we'll get one until enough people stop saying "it's just luck" and start complaining. I know nobody wants to listen to a complainer too often or too long, but if you want fair dice, what alternative do you have? Please be understanding, therefore, when people want fair play enough to express their pain over injustice and point out when they're not getting a fair deal with the dice.

Adambulldog says: My question: is this sour grapes, or could it be true?

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