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3 Ply Analysis

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 17 November 2006, at 8:36 a.m.

In Response To: Took the cube, what a mess! (Stick)

If you thought I was rolling this out you should do me a favor and check yourself in to the local looney bin. Btw you're a coop of chickens for not taking a shot @ this =) Anyway...I don't actually remember what I played OTB, this position is from sometime in the last two years, just found it browsing through some things, but odds are I blundered lol

Snowie has a very clear idea of what her gameplan is. What Snowie's play does is keep the option of a perfectly timed 2-3 backgame available. You may not be behind enough in the race right now, but since you have your highest two points slotted if they're hit you should end up with a well timed 2-3 game. If they aren't hit, then you can decide if you want to try to move forward. Moving forward by hitting White off the 5 pt. now is too commital too soon. You don't want the 5 anchor, trading either of your anchors right now for the five anchor is death w/that 4 prime and your scattered position. White will surely hit another blot or two or five and just bring it around safely, the last thing you want is a 2-5 backgame. [3-5 isn't terrible, but if things pan out timing wise, I'd prefer the 2-3 by a mile]

Money Game
128
176
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 3 13/11* 6/5* -0.017
0.6% 13.6% 46.2% 53.8% 23.4% 1.8%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
2 3 22/20* 6/5* -0.126 (-0.109)
0.6% 11.1% 43.3% 56.7% 24.3% 2.4%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
3 3 7/5* 6/5 -0.200 (-0.183)
0.5% 10.4% 40.3% 59.7% 24.3% 2.0%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
4 3 6/4 6/5* -0.213 (-0.196)
0.5% 9.6% 40.1% 59.9% 24.3% 1.9%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
5 3 10/8 6/5* -0.310 (-0.292)
0.3% 7.7% 37.7% 62.3% 26.1% 1.9%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
6 3 7/5*/4 -0.366 (-0.349)
0.4% 8.6% 34.3% 65.7% 24.9% 1.8%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
7 3 8/5* -0.367 (-0.350)
0.3% 7.0% 36.2% 63.8% 27.3% 2.3%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
8 3 10/9 7/5* -0.384 (-0.367)
0.3% 6.5% 36.8% 63.2% 29.4% 2.8%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
9 3 6/5* 4/2 -0.388 (-0.371)
0.3% 6.7% 36.5% 63.5% 29.5% 2.7%
Speed Parameter: Precise.

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