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Kauder Paradox 5184 Game Snowie Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 17 November 2006, at 9:21 a.m.

Still have some statistical sig. to iron out to be 100% positive of it, but I'm convinced it's a bare beaver. A far cry from the GNU rollout though -- esp. considering the position.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
86
88
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.137
0.7% 27.4% 44.3% 55.7% 2.9% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.137 ±0.005, - live cube no double: -0.223 ±0.002, - live cube double take: -0.006 ±0.008. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 303773 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, take -0.053
2. No double -0.222 (-0.170)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+1.053)
Proper cube action: Double, beaver
Live cube
1. Double, take -0.006
2. No double -0.223 (-0.217)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+1.006)
Proper cube action: Double, Bare Beaver

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