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Just how big is this cube?

Posted By: Peter Edwards
Date: Sunday, 1 February 2009, at 12:00 p.m.

Gnu	176
Peter	153
Position ID: 0HNwAhyYc5kBGA Match ID: QQkWAAAAAAAA

• The position is taken from Jeremy Bagai's excellent book, Classic Backgammon Revisited. It is position #19, but with a realistic cube setting. This posting focusses on the play 45: 23/14. Rollout 1 (390 trials), gives the equity 0.199 with a standard error 0.021. The 391st trial took 250 seconds on my steam system (15 seconds per trial normally at my settings). The equity and standard error increased to 0.213 and 0.025 respectively. Clearly the cube was bouncing around during this trial. Can anybody work out how many points Blue won on this 391st trial?

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	23/14	+0.1994
			0.6096 0.2130 0.0184 - 0.3904 0.1076 0.0059 +0.3371 +0.1994 0.0044 0.0046 0.0026 - 0.0044 0.0027 0.0008 0.0113 0.0212
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			390 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 816733745 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Just how big is this cube?
  Peter Edwards -- Sunday, 1 February 2009, at 12:00 p.m.
  • Just how big is this cube?
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2009, at 7:22 p.m.
    • Just how big is this cube?
      Peter Edwards -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 12:19 p.m.
  • Just how big is this cube?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 5 February 2009, at 1:35 a.m.

 

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	2	R	23/14	+0.2128
			0.6117 0.2156 0.0218 - 0.3883 0.1076 0.0058 +0.3475 +0.2128 0.0049 0.0053 0.0043 - 0.0049 0.0027 0.0008 0.0153 0.0250
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			391 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 816733745 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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