[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

My hat's off...

Posted By: Christian Munk-Christensen
Date: Friday, 20 February 2009, at 10:56 a.m.

Match to 9, White leads 2-1
Blue on roll. Cube action?
White74

Blue92
Position Id: vAMAgO25BgFCAA
Match Id: UQkgASAACAAA

...to anyone who can explain why this is not a recube.

According to a 1296 games, untrunc., 2 ply gnu rollout, blue will win 77,4% of the games when recubing and only 76% of the games if no recube. Blue loses only 2,7% gammons and almost no BGs.

Using the gammon rate and bg rate from the rollout as well as the same MET (G11), the doubling window starts at 48% and the cash point is at 78,035% (live cube).

If I make a 5 point board and gnu dances, then Gnu is no longer taking. This market losing sequence happens 19*25/1296=36,6% of the time.

Hence, I am at the very end of the doubling window AND there are tons of market losers. Yet the rollout states that it costs 0,19% MWC to recube!!

It's a borderline take (0,05% MWC loss to pass).

How can this be a technical no double keeping in mind the above figures? What is going on?

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.