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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 22 November 2006, at 12:41 p.m.

In Response To: 42P-44B-42? (Stick)

I thought I'd previously rolled out all the candidates for this position. I obviously hadn't but I'll post what I have now. (all the 24/20 split w/various 2s should be rolled out) The top play here was what everyone picked I believe. If you split with 24/20 White will try to pound away if he doesn't roll a POH number even though you have the stronger board because he has an anchor and pushing you back is his #1 priority. Running all the way out with 24/18 forces hit to completely strip another point or even break the 9 pt. to possibly hit. Normally you prefer the 5 pt. anchor as it saves you from losing so many gammons if you ever are attacked. Once your opponent has made outfeild points things may change a bit. You don't want to get hemmed behind a prime so here I'd prefer making the bar point anchor to making the 5 pt. anchor.

Money Game
151
161
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/18 -0.387
0.3% 6.8% 41.0% 59.0% 16.4% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.277 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 187974 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 24/22 13/9 -0.397 (-0.010)
0.4% 8.0% 40.4% 59.6% 17.3% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.288 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 181555 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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