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BGonline.org Forums
Oops this was the White position
Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: Oops this was the White position (neilkaz)
Date: Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 6:55 a.m.
Sure would be nice to win a bg here. But that might happen with the safe play anyway. And blue needs to win an extra BG for every G that is blown by ripping 2, and 3 extra BGs for every game lost.
So what's the likelihood of winning a BG?
White needs 5 crossovers to save bg.
Playing safe, blue needs 5 crossovers, so it is like a 3 roll bearoff with white on roll, but better for blue since white misses with aces (11 being really bad) and some small numbers, so figure blue gets the bg 30% of the time. Lets give blue 100% gammon wins here.
Ripping 2, Figure 70% no-hit, and its sort of like a 3 roll bearoff with blue on roll, but better for white since blue did not roll a double but worse since white misses on aces (11 really bad). So figure white saves bg 20% of these. That's 56% bgs. Say 57% because blue will win a few slime bgs after getting hit. I'll guess that white manages to save gammon 60% of the time after hitting the shot (18%). So that's 82% gammon wins.
So it looks like blue wins about 27% extra bgs by ripping, but wins 18% fewer gammons. They trade off 1:1, so ripping gains 11% here.
Figure with 11 checkers off, blue is losing 25% of the 18% for about 4.5% game losses. You need 3 bgs to compensate for a loss. So that's like giving up 13.5% bgs. That puts ripping behind by 2.5%
Conclusion: Play safe.
(Sorry Adam, your instincts are right in my opinion, no enlightenment coming from me.)
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