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42S-54?

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Monday, 27 November 2006, at 9:27 a.m.

I was surprised by Stick's rollout of this play, so I repeated it using gnubg.

I dislike hitting on the ace so early, and like gnubg evaluations, preferred 13/9 13/8. The rollout is closer than Snowie's; it's much too close to call. With little prospect of getting statistical significance any time soon, I don't think it's worth extending the rollout.

Also worth noting is that the hit looks definitely best at GG because of the gammons, whilst running would be best at DMP.

Move number 2: Ian to play 54

gnubg	162
Ian	167
Position ID: 4HPhASjgc/ABMA Match ID: cIkSAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/20 6/1*	-0.136
			0.470 0.122 0.005 - 0.530 0.154 0.007 -0.095 -0.136 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5608 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1011400051 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 2.5 (min. 324 games)
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	24/20 13/8	-0.140 ( -0.004)
			0.471 0.119 0.005 - 0.529 0.155 0.006 -0.095 -0.140 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5608 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1011400051 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 2.5 (min. 324 games)
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	24/15	-0.146 ( -0.010)
			0.472 0.109 0.005 - 0.528 0.161 0.006 -0.110 -0.146 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5582 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1011400051 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 2.5 (min. 324 games)
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/9 13/8	-0.165 ( -0.029)
			0.462 0.133 0.006 - 0.538 0.159 0.010 -0.106 -0.165 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2273 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1011400051 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 2.5 (min. 324 games)
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	13/8 6/2*	-0.149 ( -0.014)
			0.464 0.127 0.005 - 0.536 0.160 0.008

Messages In This Thread

• 42S-54?
  Ian Shaw -- Monday, 27 November 2006, at 9:27 a.m.
  • ?
    Stick -- Monday, 27 November 2006, at 11:08 a.m.
    • Re: ?
      Ian Shaw -- Monday, 27 November 2006, at 12:50 p.m.