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BGonline.org Forums
When rollouts lie
Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Monday, 10 August 2009, at 10:08 p.m.
How bot errors can skew rollout results. I expect I've run loads of rollouts where this sort of thing is happening and haven't spotted it. How do you?
Interestingly the difference between the rollouts seems to be caused by XG taking the recube on what's around a 1.2 pass after 21/13 dance, while GNU passes (they are both using G11). I guess that 21/13 is the best practical move.
is Robin_Hood
score: 0
pip: 1227 point match pip: 122
score: 0
is AntericoXGID=aBB-BBB--A---Aac-bbbbBAb--:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:7:10 to play 53
1. Rollout1 21/13 eq: +0.856
Player:
Opponent:62.46% (G:32.76% B:1.77%)
37.54% (G:9.49% B:1.04%)Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.847...+0.865)
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes 42 seconds2. Rollout1 21/16 9/6 eq: +0.702 (-0.154)
Player:
Opponent:62.81% (G:29.85% B:0.57%)
37.19% (G:10.24% B:0.94%)Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.699...+0.705)
Duration: 16 minutes 38 seconds3. 3 ply 21/16 13/10 eq: +0.666 (-0.190)
Player:
Opponent:62.77% (G:36.01% B:0.50%)
37.23% (G:10.69% B:0.87%)4. 1 ply 13/8 9/6 eq: +0.289 (-0.567)
Player:
Opponent:50.00% (G:23.16% B:0.29%)
50.00% (G:9.33% B:0.34%)5. 1 ply 13/10 9/4 eq: +0.286 (-0.570)
Player:
Opponent:50.18% (G:21.93% B:0.28%)
49.82% (G:8.85% B:0.34%)1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
# Ply Move Equity • 1 R 21/16 9/6 +0.7056
0.6339 0.3345 0.0070 - 0.3661 0.1030 0.0069 +0.5122 +0.7056 0.0004 0.0006 0.0002 - 0.0004 0.0006 0.0003 0.0012 0.0017 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 7776 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 861628715 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 21/13 +0.7042 ( -0.0014)
0.6136 0.3035 0.0058 - 0.3864 0.0994 0.0052 +0.4424 +0.7042 0.0003 0.0005 0.0002 - 0.0003 0.0005 0.0002 0.0010 0.0015 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 7776 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 861628715 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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