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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: playBunny
Date: Sunday, 30 August 2009, at 1:44 a.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (joe freedman)

Joe: Maybe I don't understand what you're saying, but it seems that you are confusing cause and effect.

Cause and effect is part of the problem statement but you're not accepting it. It's embodied in the Predictor via the success rate. I can't explain it to you, I can only try and lead you to discover for yourself.

Consider these two extremes:

The first has a Predictor that will always, that's always, know in advance what you are going to do. It takes its action and then you act. Whatever you do, no matter how surprising you try and make it, it will have known already and it will have done the appropriate thing. What's best for you, to take or drop the $1000?

The second has exactly the same setup except that the Predictor is absolutely always wrong when it predicts your action. What's best now, take or drop the $1000?

My actions would be different for each case. How about you?

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