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Stay back or run?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 11 September 2009, at 11:16 p.m.

The position below came up today. Is there a way to figure out the right play by hand? It's easy to work out the probability of getting a shot by staying back, but is there a formula for estimating the racing odds? (In case it's not clear, there are 12 checkers on the 24-point.)

Money Game
Blue to play 3-4
White25

Blue63
Position Id: /w8AAcDutQEQAA
Match Id: cIkRAAAAAAAA

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