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XG Question: Does 'Error compared to XG' enables Outplays?

Posted By: Christian Plenz
Date: Sunday, 27 September 2009, at 9:37 p.m.

Ok, this positoin was reached at Move #9 of a singele Money Game. First is the 3ply evaulation Second is the Rollout The Rollout says its an huge Outplay to Double and the estimation goes from 'Advanced' to 'Wow' with 2394 estimated Elo. But I would slighly disagree with the ELO. Cause its not on the player who doubles, the Take/Pass is up to the other player's dicision. If this is an 'Outplay' should it not have to be credit to the Player who has Dropped the Cube?!

I am not sure which settings to use.

XGID=-a--BBCDa---cB--b--bbb--bB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ | X O | | O O O O | | X O | | O O O O | | | | | | | X | | | | X | | | |BAR| | | | | | | X | | | | O X | | X | | O X | | X X X | | O O X | | X X X O | +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ Pipcount X: 140 O: 130 X-O: 0-0 Cube : 1 O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in 3 ply Player Winning Chances: 66,54% (G: 34,64% B: 0,63%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33,46% (G: 8,26% B: 0,50%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,596, Double=+1,192

Cubeful Equities:

No Double: +0,869 (-0,095)

Double/Take: +0,964

Double/Drop: +1,000 (+0,036)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Version: 1.03

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XGID=-a--BBCDa---cB--b--bbb--bB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ | X O | | O O O O | | X O | | O O O O | | | | | | | X | | | | X | | | |BAR| | | | | | | X | | | | O X | | X | | O X | | X X X | | O O X | | X X X O | +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ Pipcount X: 140 O: 130 X-O: 0-0 Cube : 1 O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout Player Winning Chances: 68,83% (G: 38,37% B: 0,79%) Opponent Winning Chances: 31,17% (G: 8,28% B: 0,62%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,679, Double=+1,359

Cubeful Equities:

No Double: +0,938 (-0,062)

Double/Take: +1,242 (+0,242)

Double/Drop: +1,000

Best Cube action: Double / Drop

Rollout 1440 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3 ply Red, cube decisions: 3 ply Confidence No Double: ± 0,023 (+0,915Double Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0%

Duration: 9 minutes 02 seconds

Version: 1.03

Messages In This Thread

• XG Question: Does 'Error compared to XG' enables Outplays?
  Christian Plenz -- Sunday, 27 September 2009, at 9:37 p.m.
  • XG Question: Does 'Error compared to XG' enables Outplays?
    eXtreme Gammon -- Sunday, 27 September 2009, at 10:07 p.m.
    • XG Question: Does 'Error compared to XG' enables Outplays?
      Christian Plenz -- Sunday, 27 September 2009, at 10:12 p.m.
      • XG Question: Does 'Error compared to XG' enables Outplays?
        Christian Plenz -- Sunday, 27 September 2009, at 10:14 p.m.