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53P21$@GS?

Posted By: Andreas
Date: Wednesday, 30 September 2009, at 5:40 p.m.

Acc. Sticks recent article "Gammon Save" in gammon village 21 should be slotted against 53P in case of GS:

"An interesting twist comes into play on a couple of replies after your opponent has won the opening roll with a 53 and made his 3pt. The two replies in question are 62 and 21. After listening to me harp about how important an advanced anchor early on is at this score you'd be sorely tempted to split with these too I'm sure. Again, for money these plays are both close and here we can imagine hanging on to the anchor is better because our opponent has already made an inner board point and we'd rather not have him unload his midpoint on us if we split with 62. With the 21 it seems to never be a particularly bad play to unstack both our heavy points with our worst racing number. When hit we'll still have good sixes from the bar and when missed we almost always cover. We aim for a priming game when our opponent has slightly commited to an attacking game with the somewhat deep 3pt, especially at this score."

In contrast to this my XBG RO finds 21S significant superior by 0,05:

So: What is right and why?

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 167
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-c--b-B-:0:0:1:21:1:0:1:2:10
to play 21

1.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: -0,386
Player:
Opponent:		 46,66% (G:15,24% B:2,12%)
53,34% (G:16,06% B:2,29%)		Conf: ± 0,018 (-0,404...-0,368)
Duration: 2 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout124/21eq: -0,399 (-0,014)
Player:
Opponent:		 46,62% (G:14,93% B:1,96%)
53,38% (G:16,65% B:2,50%)		Conf: ± 0,019 (-0,418...-0,380)
Duration: 3 minutes 09 seconds
3.Rollout113/10eq: -0,425 (-0,039)
Player:
Opponent:		 44,96% (G:15,64% B:2,07%)
55,04% (G:16,34% B:3,25%)		Conf: ± 0,018 (-0,443...-0,407)
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
4.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0,437 (-0,051)
Player:
Opponent:		 45,28% (G:13,53% B:2,22%)
54,72% (G:17,19% B:4,54%)		Conf: ± 0,019 (-0,456...-0,418)
Duration: 3 minutes 24 seconds
5.2 ply24/23 6/4eq: -0,490 (-0,104)
Player:
Opponent:		 44,21% (G:10,84% B:0,51%)
55,79% (G:18,70% B:1,15%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
First 1 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 1 ply

Version: 1.03, MET: eXtremeGammon

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