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Match Equity 101

Posted By: Max Urban
Date: Monday, 5 October 2009, at 3:10 p.m.

This is in response to a similar thread that was started a while back regarding match equity calculations. When playing matches I generally find that I try to estimate my winning chances and I do crudely take into consideration gammon losses/wins (a là "I lose quite a few gammons here"). But I have never really bothered learning how to do a proper risk/gain analysis and applying numbers to TPs etc. In addition, I have also found that through my ignorance I have started overestimating take points when I am trailing and underestimating drop points when I am leading (perhaps through doing too many quizzes). I have generally relied on my experience and I was more than a little relieved when I learnt that many players on this forum only rarely do the actual number crunching.

Nevertheless, it can't harm familiarising oneself with this concept a little more so here is my question:

What would be the best way for me to approach this whole topic? Apart from the experience and skill needed to come up with percentages for losses, wins , gammon losses etc. (I think I have to tackle this myself) do I just learn one of the match equity tables by heart? Or perhaps one of the methods developed by Kleinman or NeilKaz? What method do you guys use? I would imagine that differences in ME tables and estimation techniques are negligible at my level? Do I maybe just learn the take/drop points for 5a5a and closer?

Any other suggestions would be appreciated...

Messages In This Thread

• Match Equity 101
  Max Urban -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 3:10 p.m.
  • Match Equity 101
    Phil Simborg -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 3:49 p.m.
    • POG???
      Andreas -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 4:16 p.m.
      • POG???
        Phil simborg -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 4:49 p.m.
        • POG???
          Andreas -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 11:34 p.m.
      • POG???
        W Womack -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 5:11 p.m.
    • Match Equity 101
      W Womack -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 5:17 p.m.
  • Match Equity 101
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 4:29 p.m.
    • Match Equity 101
      neilkaz -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 4:35 p.m.
      • Match Equity 101
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 4:44 p.m.
        • Match Equity 101
          John O'Hagan -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 5:43 p.m.
    • Match Equity 101
      Seth -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 5:10 p.m.
  • Match Equity 101
    Stick -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 6:19 p.m.
    • Match Equity 101
      David Rockwell -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 7:31 p.m.