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I'm surprised by this basic holding game

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 11 October 2009, at 5:58 p.m.

I'd have thought this to be a clear take ie about .93. I guess the 9 pt means more than I'd thought even though it often cannot be kept for long.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 141

Money session

pip: 117 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=----BBCbCB--cC---cbcb-----:0:0:1:D:0:0:0:0:10

double to 2 take ?

Analyzed in Rollout
Player Winning Chances:	77.81% (G: 2.52% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.19% (G: 1.14% B: 0.04%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.570
Double:	+1.140
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.922 (-0.078)
Double/Take:	+1.000 (+0.000)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.006 (+0.916...+0.929)
Confidence Double:	± 0.008 (+0.993...+1.008)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	52.9%
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes 52 seconds

Version: 1.03

The score (after 0 games) is: Opp 0, neilkaz 0

Move number 3: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Opp	141
neilkaz	117
Position ID: sNvBwQDYzg0HAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5515
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9935
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0065
3.	No double	+0.9230	-0.0704
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7728 0.0181 0.0005 - 0.2272 0.0123 0.0004 +0.5515 +0.9230 Standard error 0.0004 0.0004 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0000 0.0009 0.0023 Player Opp owns 2-cube 0.7772 0.0171 0.0004 - 0.2228 0.0122 0.0004 +1.1186 +0.9935 Standard error 0.0004 0.0004 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 0.0020 0.0024
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
7027 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871566906 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• I'm surprised by this basic holding game
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 11 October 2009, at 5:58 p.m.
  • I'm surprised by this basic holding game
    Stick -- Sunday, 11 October 2009, at 6:54 p.m.
    • I'm surprised by this basic holding game
      neilkaz -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 1:41 a.m.