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BGonline.org Forums
54D 33
Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 2:58 a.m.
Here's another opening reply I've been puzzling over: 54D 33. If I hadn't seen Stick's rollout, I would have guessed that the top play would be 33C, i.e., 24/21(2) 8/5(2), or possibly 33B, i.e., 24/21(2) 13/10(2). My reasoning would have been: 24/21(2) is typically a good use of two of the 3's, especially if there is a priming threat, as there is here. With the remaining two 3's, 13/10(2) is the "default" play, and is probably close to best if not the best, but since there's some chance of hitting the outfield blot, it's also a good option to make a home-board point. The 5-point is better than the 3-point and since the opponent has not split, making the 5-point does not leave a direct shot.
The rollout results are consistent with the above reasoning except that the rollout ranks 33E (i.e., 24/21(2) 6/3(2)) and 33C in exactly the opposite order that I would have ranked them. That is, 33E and 33B are essentially tied for first place, and 33C is about 0.016 below them.
Now, when the equity differences are small, sometimes a tactical issue can override strategic issues. I can't see what the tactical issue would be here, though. Perhaps it's that after 33C the opponent's blot is relatively safe because my 5's are duplicated?
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