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Opening 21 With Free Drop

Posted By: happyjuggler0
Date: Thursday, 19 November 2009, at 4:27 p.m.

In Response To: Opening 21 With Free Drop (tem_sat)

If there's any chance at all that your opponent might forget to cube on her first turn, then you simply must slot regardless of what the rollouts show, noting that the rollouts show slotting is best.

The reason for this is simple. If your opp forgets to cube this turn but remembers next turn, then you get to see her roll and your next roll before deciding to take the cube or use your free drop. If you get hit, you drop. If you make the 5 point and your opponent has done diddly, then it is a grand slam of a take.

Contrast that with what would happen if you had played 24/23 instead. Your equity swing on good outcomes vs bad outcomes isn't nearly as magnified.

Of course all this is simply based on the assumption that your opponent might not remember to cube immediately. Therefore you can't ignore the rollout numbers, but the principle still holds that you have a chance at a massive amount of free equity here.

Anyway, that's my opinion. :)

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