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GG checker play

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 20 November 2009, at 1:17 a.m.

In Response To: GG checker play (Bill)

4/1x - off looks right to me. That gives White 13 hitters but with Blue having 7 men off and White having an open 6-point, I think W only wins around 40% after a hit (~5.2 losses in 36 games). There's some double jeopardy with this big play but it's pretty small and probably close to the chance of losing after the safe play (5/2 5/4), so I'll use 5.2 for the total extra losses from the aggressive play. Can this play win an addl 5.2 g's? I think so. You are probably close to even money on the 9 dances and your g chances are improved on the 14 misses since you've now got an even number of men left.

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