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To hit or not to hit?
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: To hit or not to hit? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Saturday, 21 November 2009, at 9:29 p.m.
Over the board, I was perhaps a bit too optimistic about how many extra gammons I would win by hitting, and I hit.
The rollout is interesting. It ranks 8/4 6/1* only slightly below the seemingly automatic (assuming you're not hitting) 13/8 10/6. But GNU's clear favorite is the very flexible and safe 21/16 8/4.
The actual course of the game sheds some light on the importance of escaping the back checker. White came in with one checker. I successfully covered my blot on the 1-point, but couldn't escape the back checker at the same time. White danced, and again I had an awkward roll that left my back checker stuck and forced me to leave an indirect shot in the outfield. White luckily hit the indirect shot. Soon the cube came back, and despite my annoyance I (correctly) took. I eventually lost 8 points.
Although this sequence was not especially likely, it does illustrate that leaving the last checker behind creates an inflexible position that is not without risk.
gnubg 147
tchow 106 Position ID: M5sDAFNmuyUCBA Match ID: QgkWAEAAIAAA
# Ply Move Equity • 1 R 21/16 8/4 +0.939
0.822 0.369 0.016 - 0.178 0.013 0.000 +1.016 +0.939 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.005 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841524034 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 13/8 10/6 +0.878 ( -0.061)
0.812 0.339 0.014 - 0.188 0.015 0.000 +0.962 +0.878 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.005 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841524034 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 3 R 8/4 6/1* +0.865 ( -0.075)
0.788 0.416 0.012 - 0.212 0.048 0.003 +0.953 +0.865 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.006 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841524034 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 4 R 10/5 8/4 +0.863 ( -0.076)
0.788 0.389 0.018 - 0.212 0.027 0.001 +0.955 +0.863 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.005 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841524034 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 5 R 10/1* +0.825 ( -0.114)
0.777 0.413 0.011 - 0.223 0.052 0.003 +0.922 +0.825 0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.006 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841524034 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
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