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Guess it wasn't me...

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 23 November 2009, at 6:29 p.m.

In Response To: Guess it wasn't me... (Chuck Bower)

"Also, some of you have mentioned reader comments at NYTimes 5th Down Blog. Those used to be 95% negative/ignorant"

What about this from a Bill Simmons column where he seriously argues that the Colts great success so far in the 4th quarter predicted a very low probabiltiy of a 70 yard drive. As far as I can tell they "weren't on fire" because they already were on fire and burned out? With that logic why not say something like "no team has ever come back being down double digits when the opponents did go for it on 4th and short in their own territory with 2-3 minutes left. Thus going for it must be correct."

"Put it this way: The Colts weren't exactly on fire. Admittedly, I am terrified of Manning and have written as much. But Indy had already started and completed two long touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against a good defense. Had the Patriots punted, Indy would have had to pull off a third long touchdown drive to win the game. I asked Peter Newmann to research the number of times a team started and completed three touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to erase a double-digit deficit and win an NFL game since 2005. Here's how the list looked before that fourth-and-2 call.

2005: 1 2006: 2 2007: 0 2008: 1 2009: 0

In 78 weeks of football dating back to 2005, it happened a whopping four times. Four! If you're playing the statistics card, why not play that one? By punting, the Patriots would have been asking Peyton Manning to pull off something THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN EVEN ONCE EVERY EFFING SEASON. You're damned right I just went all caps. Hold on, I have to repeatedly bang my head against my desk again."

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