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6-3 from the bar

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 24 November 2009, at 4:17 p.m.

In Response To: 6-3 from the bar (Timothy Chow)

Thanks for the feedback, everyone. Here is how I would explain the position to myself now.

The downside of the 20-pt/16-pt configuration (as opposed to the 22-pt/14-pt configuration) is that it is more vulnerable. It's important to assess not just the number of shots, but the quality of the shots. For example, a hit on the 20-point is a given, whereas some of the rolls that hit on the 22-point might be "phantom" shots that are better played elsewhere. I did not properly take this fact into account when counting shots.

But it is only half the story to note that the opponent wants the 20-point more than the 22-point. There's also the question of which point I want more. I might slot a point that my opponent wants badly, if I also want it badly. One advantage of the 20-pt/16-pt configuration is that if just my outfield blot is hit, then as I try to come in from the bar, I have a better anchor already slotted, plus I may have more return shots if the outfield hit was a loose hit (the latter is a consequence of the greater connectivity of the 20-pt/16-pt configuration).

Finally, one needs to consider the upside of not getting hit at all. An advantage of the 22-pt/14-pt configuration is that the more advanced blot has a double shot at safety. I didn't think about this when assessing the position the first time around.

One still has to put all these pieces together and weigh them against each other, but at least the main ingredients for the decision have been laid out here.

Messages In This Thread

• 6-3 from the bar
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 23 November 2009, at 3:22 a.m.
  • 6-3 from the bar
    samir -- Monday, 23 November 2009, at 3:40 a.m.
  • 6-3 from the bar
    neilkaz -- Monday, 23 November 2009, at 4:46 a.m.
    • 6-3 from the bar
      Jason Lee -- Monday, 23 November 2009, at 5:50 a.m.
      • 6-3 from the bar
        Sam Pottle -- Monday, 23 November 2009, at 10:10 a.m.
  • 6-3 from the bar
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 23 November 2009, at 5:40 a.m.
  • 6-3 from the bar
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 23 November 2009, at 6:20 a.m.
  • 6-3 from the bar
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 24 November 2009, at 4:17 p.m.