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41 opening RO w/XG 4 ply

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Wednesday, 25 November 2009, at 9:10 p.m.

In Response To: 41 opening RO w/XG 4 ply (neilkaz)

This is consistent with the Snowie rollouts. The margin between the plays is much less on the GNU rollouts. This is at least in part because GNU misplays 4 of the responses to the slotting play. GNU doesn't counterslot with 21 etc. This inflates the GNU equity of the slotting play. GNU gets all of the splitting responses correct, so that is presumably a better estimate.

The significance of this is that the GNU rollouts which recommend slotting at GG are suspect. Splitting may be correct at any score. It is almost certainly closer than the rollouts indicate. I believe the same situation holds to a lessor extent with 21 & 51 on the opening roll. In particular, I believe that 51S vs $ needs to be reevaluated at GG. And, 21S may be correct or TCTC at GS.

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